It's an odd scenario, isn't it, when the Republicans are talking more about impeachment than Democrats. The GOP released a web ad today warning Americans that a Democratic Congress would vote to censure and impeach the President during a time of war. Yes, folks, this is their brilliant GOTV strategy. Vote Republican, or Bush gets the boot.
This outcome of the midterm election, of course, will come down to turnout. Democrats have a 10-15% lead in generic congressional ballots but all that is meaningless when Republicans in church buses show up to the polls in droves. As an internal GOP memo reveals, Republicans are very concerned about turnout. The memo advises GOP Chair Ken Mehlman that turnout could parallel that of the election in 1982 or 1984, where Republicans showed up in normal numbers, but the polls were flooded by Democrats 'because they were angry.'
It goes without question that President Bush and this Congress have given us a lot to be angry about, with the energy of a 'throw the bums out!' strategy building in our party. Democrats have a lot of work ahead of them in GOTV efforts, but they do have that palpable desire to 'throw the bums out!' working in their favor.
And herein lies the GOP's problem. Their chosen method to galvanize their base is to keep the bums in. One bum, specifically, the Bum-in-Chief Bush. In its video (which is set to the music of bombs bursting, because you can never have enough fear-mongering in a Republian ad), the GOP warns that a Democratic Congress will impeach the President during a time of war. The implication being that you should vote for Republicans to save Bush's job.
The 'keep the bum in' strategy may have worked back when Bush's GOP approval was in the high 90s (back in 2001/2002). It may have even worked in mid-December, when 87% of Republicans approved of Bush's performance. But these days, Bush is only polling at around 70-74% among the party faithful.
One in four or one in three Republican voters is already unlikely to head Mehlman's call to action. Will a call to stave off censure or impeachment motivate the remaining conservatives to come out and vote? Or will many of them--especially those who feel that Bush has abandoned their conservative values--secretly wish that the guy is fired? "